A victory by the Buffalo Bills over the Kansas City Chiefs is our computer model prediction for these teams' upcoming game, on Sunday, January 21 at 6:30 PM ET (at Highmark Stadium). For more information, including the spread, over/under and final score, see below.

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The Bills rank ninth in total defense this season (307.2 yards allowed per game), but they've been shining on offense, ranking fourth-best in the NFL with 374.5 total yards per game. The Chiefs' defensive unit has been leading the way for the team, as they rank second-best in the NFL with 17.3 points allowed per game. In terms of offense, they are generating 21.8 points per game, which ranks 15th.

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Bills vs. Chiefs Predictions and Picks

ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Bills (-2.5) Under (45.5) Bills 24, Chiefs 18

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Divisional Round NFL Predictions

Bills Betting Info

  • The Bills have an implied moneyline win probability of 59.2% in this contest.
  • Buffalo compiled a 7-9-1 record against the spread in the regular season, and are 1-0-0 in the postseason.
  • The Bills are 6-8 ATS this season (regular season and playoffs) when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites.
  • During the regular season, six Buffalo games went over the point total, and in the playoffs one of one.
  • The over/under in this matchup is 45.5 points, 0.4 fewer than the average total in Bills contests in the regular season.

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Chiefs Betting Info

  • The sportsbooks' moneyline implies a 45.5% chance of a victory for the Chiefs.
  • Kansas City put together a 10-7-0 record against the spread in the regular season and is 1-0-0 in the postseason.
  • The Chiefs have been an underdog by 2.5 points or more once in the regular season and playoffs, and covered the spread.
  • A total of five Kansas City games in the regular season hit the over, and zero of one in the playoffs.
  • In the regular season, Chiefs games resulted in an average scoring total of 45.8, which is 0.3 points higher than the over/under for this matchup.

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Bills vs. Chiefs 2023 Scoring Insights

Pts Pts Allowed Home Pts Home Pts Allowed Away Pts Away Pts Allowed
Buffalo 26.5 18.3 28.4 15.9 24.4 21
Kansas City 21.8 17.3 22.8 16.4 20.8 18.3

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